TY - UNPB

T1 - Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect’s profile to a reference database

AU - Andersen, Mikkel Meyer

AU - Eriksen, Poul Svante

AU - Morling, Niels

PY - 2022

Y1 - 2022

N2 - The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society of Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspect’s Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution Y-STR profiles in the database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspect’s Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the discrete Laplace model must be recomputed. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspect’s Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if a an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer a freely available IT tool for estimating the discrete Laplace model of the STR profiles in a database and the likelihood ratio.

AB - The discrete Laplace method is recommended by multiple parties (including the International Society of Forensic Genetics, ISFG) to estimate the weight of evidence in criminal cases when a suspect’s Y-STR profile matches the crime scene Y-STR profile. Unfortunately, modelling the distribution Y-STR profiles in the database is time-consuming and requires expert knowledge. When the suspect’s Y-STR profile is added to the database, as would be the protocol in many cases, the discrete Laplace model must be recomputed. We found that the likelihood ratios with and without adding the suspect’s Y-STR profile were almost identical with 1,000 or more Y-STR profiles in the database for Y-STR profiles with 8, 12, and 17 loci. Thus, likelihood ratio calculations can be performed in seconds if a an established discrete Laplace model based on at least 1,000 Y-STR profiles is used. A match in a database with 17 Y-STR loci from at least 1,000 male individuals results in a likelihood ratio above 10,000 in approximately 94% of the cases, and above 100,000 in approximately 82% of the cases. We offer a freely available IT tool for estimating the discrete Laplace model of the STR profiles in a database and the likelihood ratio.

U2 - 10.1101/2022.08.25.505269

DO - 10.1101/2022.08.25.505269

M3 - Preprint

BT - Weight of evidence of Y-STR matches computed with the discrete Laplace method: Impact of adding a suspect’s profile to a reference database

PB - bioRxiv

ER -