TY - JOUR

T1 - Vulnerability to Natural Shocks

T2 - Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique

AU - Salvucci, Vincenzo

AU - Santos, Ricardo

PY - 2020/10

Y1 - 2020/10

N2 - Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11-17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.

AB - Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11-17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.

KW - Welfare Impacts of Natural Shocks

KW - Flood

KW - Difference-in-Difference

KW - Mozambique

KW - CHANGING FOOD-PRICES

KW - EARLY-CHILDHOOD

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - RURAL WELFARE

KW - DISASTERS

KW - RISK

KW - CHALLENGES

KW - ADAPTATION

KW - DYNAMICS

KW - DROUGHT

U2 - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713

DO - 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713

M3 - Journal article

VL - 176

JO - Ecological Economics

JF - Ecological Economics

SN - 0921-8009

M1 - 106713

ER -