The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Standard

The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example. / Refsgaard, J.C.; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Drews, M.; Halsnæs, Kirsten; Jeppesen, E.; Madsen, H.; Markandya, A.; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind; Porter, John Roy; Christensen, J.H.

In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Vol. 18, No. 3, 2013, p. 337-359.

Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review

Harvard

Refsgaard, JC, Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K, Drews, M, Halsnæs, K, Jeppesen, E, Madsen, H, Markandya, A, Olesen, JE, Porter, JR & Christensen, JH 2013, 'The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example', Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, vol. 18, no. 3, pp. 337-359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6

APA

Refsgaard, J. C., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Drews, M., Halsnæs, K., Jeppesen, E., Madsen, H., Markandya, A., Olesen, J. E., Porter, J. R., & Christensen, J. H. (2013). The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 18(3), 337-359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6

Vancouver

Refsgaard JC, Arnbjerg-Nielsen K, Drews M, Halsnæs K, Jeppesen E, Madsen H et al. The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 2013;18(3):337-359. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6

Author

Refsgaard, J.C. ; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten ; Drews, M. ; Halsnæs, Kirsten ; Jeppesen, E. ; Madsen, H. ; Markandya, A. ; Olesen, Jørgen Eivind ; Porter, John Roy ; Christensen, J.H. / The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example. In: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change. 2013 ; Vol. 18, No. 3. pp. 337-359.

Bibtex

@article{993a6c68a2af426aac39b7a46d7fd839,
title = "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example",
abstract = "We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation. ",
author = "J.C. Refsgaard and Karsten Arnbjerg-Nielsen and M. Drews and Kirsten Halsn{\ae}s and E. Jeppesen and H. Madsen and A. Markandya and Olesen, {J{\o}rgen Eivind} and Porter, {John Roy} and J.H. Christensen",
year = "2013",
doi = "10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6",
language = "English",
volume = "18",
pages = "337--359",
journal = "Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change",
issn = "1381-2386",
publisher = "Springer",
number = "3",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - a Danish water management example

AU - Refsgaard, J.C.

AU - Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

AU - Drews, M.

AU - Halsnæs, Kirsten

AU - Jeppesen, E.

AU - Madsen, H.

AU - Markandya, A.

AU - Olesen, Jørgen Eivind

AU - Porter, John Roy

AU - Christensen, J.H.

PY - 2013

Y1 - 2013

N2 - We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.

AB - We propose a generic framework to characterize climate change adaptation uncertainty according to three dimensions: level, source and nature. Our framework is different, and in this respect more comprehensive, than the present UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approach and could be used to address concerns that the IPCC approach is oversimplified. We have studied the role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation planning using examples from four Danish water related sectors. The dominating sources of uncertainty differ greatly among issues; most uncertainties on impacts are epistemic (reducible) by nature but uncertainties on adaptation measures are complex, with ambiguity often being added to impact uncertainties. Strategies to deal with uncertainty in climate change adaptation should reflect the nature of the uncertainty sources and how they interact with risk level and decision making: (i) epistemic uncertainties can be reduced by gaining more knowledge; (ii) uncertainties related to ambiguity can be reduced by dialogue and knowledge sharing between the different stakeholders; and (iii) aleatory uncertainty is, by its nature, non-reducible. The uncertainty cascade includes many sources and their propagation through technical and socio-economic models may add substantially to prediction uncertainties, but they may also cancel each other. Thus, even large uncertainties may have small consequences for decision making, because multiple sources of information provide sufficient knowledge to justify action in climate change adaptation.

U2 - 10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6

DO - 10.1007/s11027-012-9366-6

M3 - Journal article

VL - 18

SP - 337

EP - 359

JO - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

JF - Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change

SN - 1381-2386

IS - 3

ER -

ID: 40708373