Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial
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Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial. / Domingo, Dario; Malmierca-Vallet, Irene; Sime, Louise; Voss, Jochen; Capron, Emilie.
In: Journal of Geophysical Research, Part F: Earth Surface, Vol. 125, No. 5, e2019JF005237, 01.05.2020.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Using Ice Cores and Gaussian Process Emulation to Recover Changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet During the Last Interglacial
AU - Domingo, Dario
AU - Malmierca-Vallet, Irene
AU - Sime, Louise
AU - Voss, Jochen
AU - Capron, Emilie
PY - 2020/5/1
Y1 - 2020/5/1
N2 - The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterized through a dimension-reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario-based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.
AB - The shape and extent of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) during the Last Interglacial (LIG) is a matter of controversy, with different studies proposing a wide range of reconstructions. Here, for the first time, we combine stable water isotopic information from ice cores with isotope-enabled climate model outputs to investigate the problem. Exploring the space of possible ice sheet geometries by simulation is prohibitively expensive. We address this problem by using a Gaussian process emulator as a statistical surrogate of the full climate model. The emulator is calibrated using the results of a small number of carefully chosen simulations and then permits fast, probabilistic predictions of the simulator outputs at untried inputs. The inputs are GIS morphologies, parameterized through a dimension-reduction technique adapted to the spherical geometry of the setting. Based on the emulator predictions, the characteristics of morphologies compatible with the available ice core measurements are explored, leading to a reduction in uncertainty on the LIG GIS morphology. Moreover, a scenario-based approach allows to assess the gains in uncertainty reduction which would result from the availability of better dated LIG measurements in Greenland ice cores.
KW - Gaussian process emulation
KW - Greenland Ice Sheet
KW - Last Interglacial
KW - SEA-LEVEL RISE
KW - ANTARCTIC ICE
KW - GLACIAL MAXIMUM
KW - AIR CONTENT
KW - CHRONOLOGY AICC2012
KW - OXYGEN-ISOTOPE
KW - COUPLED MODEL
KW - CLIMATE
KW - SIMULATIONS
KW - CONSTRAINTS
U2 - 10.1029/2019JF005237
DO - 10.1029/2019JF005237
M3 - Journal article
VL - 125
JO - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
JF - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth
SN - 0148-0227
IS - 5
M1 - e2019JF005237
ER -
ID: 247168554