The Baltic sea Atlantis: An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures
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The Baltic sea Atlantis : An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures. / Bossier, Sieme; Palacz, Artur P.; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Christensen, Asbjørn; Hoff, Ayoe; Maar, Marie; Gislason, Henrik; Bastardie, François; Gorton, Rebecca; Fulton, Elizabeth A.
In: PLOS ONE, Vol. 13, No. 7, e0199168, 2018, p. 1-39.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
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TY - JOUR
T1 - The Baltic sea Atlantis
T2 - An integrated end-to-end modelling framework evaluating ecosystem-wide effects of human-induced pressures
AU - Bossier, Sieme
AU - Palacz, Artur P.
AU - Nielsen, J. Rasmus
AU - Christensen, Asbjørn
AU - Hoff, Ayoe
AU - Maar, Marie
AU - Gislason, Henrik
AU - Bastardie, François
AU - Gorton, Rebecca
AU - Fulton, Elizabeth A.
PY - 2018
Y1 - 2018
N2 - Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 subareas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.
AB - Achieving good environmental status in the Baltic Sea region requires decision support tools which are based on scientific knowledge across multiple disciplines. Such tools should integrate the complexity of the ecosystem and enable exploration of different natural and anthropogenic pressures such as climate change, eutrophication and fishing pressures in order to compare alternative management strategies. We present a new framework, with a Baltic implementation of the spatially-explicit end-to-end Atlantis ecosystem model linked to two external models, to explore the different pressures on the marine ecosystem. The HBM-ERGOM initializes the Atlantis model with high-resolution physical-chemical-biological and hydrodynamic information while the FISHRENT model analyses the fisheries economics of the output of commercial fish biomass for the Atlantis terminal projection year. The Baltic Atlantis model composes 29 subareas, 9 vertical layers and 30 biological functional groups. The balanced calibration provides realistic levels of biomass for, among others, known stock sizes of top predators and of key fish species. Furthermore, it gives realistic levels of phytoplankton biomass and shows reasonable diet compositions and geographical distribution patterns for the functional groups. By simulating several scenarios of nutrient load reductions on the ecosystem and testing sensitivity to different fishing pressures, we show that the model is sensitive to those changes and capable of evaluating the impacts on different trophic levels, fish stocks, and fisheries associated with changed benthic oxygen conditions. We conclude that the Baltic Atlantis forms an initial basis for strategic management evaluation suited for conducting medium to long term ecosystem assessments which are of importance for a number of pan-Baltic stakeholders in relation to anthropogenic pressures such as eutrophication, climate change and fishing pressure, as well as changed biological interactions between functional groups.
KW - Animals
KW - Atlantic Ocean
KW - Baltic States
KW - Biomass
KW - Climate Change
KW - Computer Simulation
KW - Conservation of Natural Resources/trends
KW - Ecosystem
KW - Eutrophication
KW - Fisheries/trends
KW - Fishes/physiology
KW - Food Chain
KW - Humans
KW - Models, Statistical
KW - Phytoplankton/physiology
KW - Predatory Behavior/physiology
U2 - 10.1371/journal.pone.0199168
DO - 10.1371/journal.pone.0199168
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 30028849
AN - SCOPUS:85051811429
VL - 13
SP - 1
EP - 39
JO - PLoS ONE
JF - PLoS ONE
SN - 1932-6203
IS - 7
M1 - e0199168
ER -
ID: 203839559