TY - JOUR

T1 - Large-scale features of Last Interglacial climate

T2 - results from evaluating the lig127k simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4)

AU - Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.

AU - Brady, Esther C.

AU - Zhao, Anni

AU - Brierley, Chris M.

AU - Axford, Yarrow

AU - Capron, Emilie

AU - Govin, Aline

AU - Hoffman, Jeremy S.

AU - Isaacs, Elizabeth

AU - Kageyama, Masa

AU - Scussolini, Paolo

AU - Tzedakis, Polychronis C.

AU - Williams, Charles J. R.

AU - Wolff, Eric

AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

AU - Braconnot, Pascale

AU - Buarque, Silvana Ramos

AU - Cao, Jian

AU - de Vernal, Anne

AU - Guarino, Maria Vittoria

AU - Guo, Chuncheng

AU - LeGrande, Allegra N.

AU - Lohmann, Gerrit

AU - Meissner, Katrin J.

AU - Menviel, Laurie

AU - Morozova, Polina A.

AU - Nisancioglu, Kerim H.

AU - O'ishi, Ryouta

AU - Melia, David Salas y

AU - Shi, Xiaoxu

AU - Sicard, Marie

AU - Sime, Louise

AU - Stepanek, Christian

AU - Tomas, Robert

AU - Volodin, Evgeny

AU - Yeung, Nicholas K. H.

AU - Zhang, Qiong

AU - Zhang, Zhongshi

AU - Zheng, Weipeng

PY - 2021/1/11

Y1 - 2021/1/11

N2 - The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the mid-Holocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 degrees C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka.New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.The CMIP6-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

AB - The modeling of paleoclimate, using physically based tools, is increasingly seen as a strong out-of-sample test of the models that are used for the projection of future climate changes. New to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) is the Tier 1 Last Interglacial experiment for 127 000 years ago (lig127k), designed to address the climate responses to stronger orbital forcing than the mid-Holocene experiment, using the same state-of-the-art models as for the future and following a common experimental protocol. Here we present a first analysis of a multi-model ensemble of 17 climate models, all of which have completed the CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) experiments. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of these models varies from 1.8 to 5.6 degrees C. The seasonal character of the insolation anomalies results in strong summer warming over the Northern Hemisphere continents in the lig127k ensemble as compared to the CMIP6 piControl and much-reduced minimum sea ice in the Arctic. The multi-model results indicate enhanced summer monsoonal precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere and reductions in the Southern Hemisphere. These responses are greater in the lig127k than the CMIP6 midHolocene simulations as expected from the larger insolation anomalies at 127 than 6 ka.New synthesis for surface temperature and precipitation, targeted for 127 ka, have been developed for comparison to the multi-model ensemble. The lig127k model ensemble and data reconstructions are in good agreement for summer temperature anomalies over Canada, Scandinavia, and the North Atlantic and for precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere continents. The model-data comparisons and mismatches point to further study of the sensitivity of the simulations to uncertainties in the boundary conditions and of the uncertainties and sparse coverage in current proxy reconstructions.The CMIP6-Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) lig127k simulations, in combination with the proxy record, improve our confidence in future projections of monsoons, surface temperature, and Arctic sea ice, thus providing a key target for model evaluation and optimization.

KW - EARTH SYSTEM MODEL

KW - AFRICAN MONSOON

KW - ANTARCTIC ICE

KW - POLAR AMPLIFICATION

KW - CHRONOLOGY AICC2012

KW - EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN

KW - MIDHOLOCENE

KW - TEMPERATURE

KW - SENSITIVITY

KW - IMPACTS

U2 - 10.5194/cp-17-63-2021

DO - 10.5194/cp-17-63-2021

M3 - Journal article

VL - 17

SP - 63

EP - 94

JO - Climate of the Past

JF - Climate of the Past

SN - 1814-9324

IS - 1

ER -