Background/Aims: Early dementia diagnosis is a considerable challenge. The present study examined the predictive value of cognitive performance for a future clinical diagnosis of late-onset Alzheimer's disease or vascular dementia in a random population sample. Methods: Cognitive performance was retrospectively compared between three groups of participants from the Betula longitudinal cohort. Group 1 developed dementia 11-22 years after baseline testing (n = 111) and group 2 after 1-10 years (n = 280); group 3 showed no deterioration towards dementia during the study period (n = 2,855). Multinomial logistic regression analysis was used to investigate the predictive value of tests reflecting episodic memory performance, semantic memory performance, visuospatial ability, and prospective memory performance. Results: Age- and education-corrected performance on two free recall episodic memory tests significantly predicted dementia 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis. Free recall performance also predicted dementia 11-22 years prior to diagnosis when controlling for education, but not when age was added to the model. Conclusion: The present results support the suggestion that two free recall-based tests of episodic memory function may be useful for detecting individuals at risk of developing dementia 10 years prior to clinical diagnosis.