TY - GEN

T1 - Conditional probability as a decision-making tool

T2 - A didactic sequence

AU - Elicer, Raimundo

AU - Carrasco, Eduardo

PY - 2017

Y1 - 2017

N2 - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

AB - Conditional probability arises as a tool for analyzing a strategy for decision-making that molds to new conditions. From that point of view, an introductory sequence which utilizes diachronic games is designed and analyzed under the framework of didactical engineering, bringing conditional probability into play as a decision-making tool. It can be observed that students tend to base their decisions on heuristics and experiential considerations, and do not see the need for a proper calculation of theoretical probabilities. At most, they use experimentation as a tool, not computing probabilities based on relative frequencies, but comparing absolute frequencies.

KW - conditional probability

KW - decision-making

KW - didactical engineering

UR - https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01927857/document

M3 - Article in proceedings

SP - 748

EP - 755

BT - Proceedings of the Tenth Congress of the European Society for Research in Mathematics Education (CERME10, February 1 – 5, 2017)

A2 - Dooley, Thérèse

A2 - Gueudet, Ghislaine

PB - DCU Institute of Education and ERME

ER -