Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States

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  • Melodie Monod
  • Alexandra Blenkinsop
  • Xiaoyue Xi
  • Daniel Hebert
  • Sivan Bershan
  • Simon Tietze
  • Marc Baguelin
  • Valerie C. Bradley
  • Yu Chen
  • Coupland, Helen Louise
  • Sarah Filippi
  • Jonathan Ish-Horowicz
  • Martin McManus
  • Thomas Mellan
  • Axel Gandy
  • Michael Hutchinson
  • H. Juliette T. Unwin
  • Sabine L. van Elsland
  • Michaela A. C. Vollmer
  • Sebastian Weber
  • Harrison Zhu
  • Anne Bezancon
  • Neil M. Ferguson
  • Swapnil Mishra
  • Seth Flaxman
  • Bhatt, Samir Jagdish
  • Oliver Ratmann
  • Imperial Coll COVID-19 Response Te

After initial declines, in mid-2020 a resurgence in transmission of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in the United States and Europe. As efforts to control COVID-19 disease are reintensified, understanding the age demographics driving transmission and how these affect the loosening of interventions is crucial. We analyze aggregated, age-specific mobility trends from more than 10 million individuals in the United States and link these mechanistically to age-specific COVID-19 mortality data. We estimate that as of October 2020, individuals aged 20 to 49 are the only age groups sustaining resurgent SARS-CoV-2 transmission with reproduction numbers well above one and that at least 65 of 100 COVID-19 infections originate from individuals aged 20 to 49 in the United States. Targeting interventions-including transmission-blocking vaccines-to adults aged 20 to 49 is an important consideration in halting resurgent epidemics and preventing COVID-19-attributable deaths.

Original languageEnglish
Article number1336
JournalScience
Volume371
Issue number6536
Number of pages13
ISSN0036-8075
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021

ID: 260739651