A prototype forecasting system for bird-borne disease spread in North America based on migratory bird movements

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

  • A. Townsend Peterson
  • Michael J. Andersen
  • Sarah Bodbyl-Roels
  • Hosner, Peter Andrew
  • Árpád Nyári
  • Carl Oliveros
  • Monica Papeş

The past two decades have seen major outbreaks of influenza viruses and flaviviruses that are spread at least in part by migratory birds. Although much new information has accumulated on the natural history of the viruses, and on the geography of migration by individual bird species, no synthesis has been achieved regarding likely patterns of spread of such pathogens by migratory birds, which constitutes a large-scale challenge in understanding the geography of bird migration. We here present a first step in this direction: a summary of seasonal (breeding, wintering) distributions of all 392 North American bird species that show marked seasonal migratory movements and that meet a series of conditions for inclusion in our analyses. We use species-level interseasonal connectivity among distributional areas to make initial forecasts of patterns of spread of bird-borne diseases via bird migration. We identify key next steps towards improved forecasting of spread patterns of bird-borne pathogens in North America, which will require substantial improvements in knowledge of the geography of bird migration.

Original languageEnglish
JournalEpidemics
Volume1
Issue number4
Pages (from-to)240-249
Number of pages10
ISSN1755-4365
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2009
Externally publishedYes

    Research areas

  • Birds, Forecasting, Influenza, Japanese encephalitis, Migration, West Nile Virus

ID: 217563829