Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control
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Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control. / Sneppen, Kim; Nielsen, Bjarke Frost; Taylor, Robert J.; Simonsen, Lone.
I: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Bind 118, Nr. 14, 2016623118, 06.04.2021.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Overdispersion in COVID-19 increases the effectiveness of limiting nonrepetitive contacts for transmission control
AU - Sneppen, Kim
AU - Nielsen, Bjarke Frost
AU - Taylor, Robert J.
AU - Simonsen, Lone
PY - 2021/4/6
Y1 - 2021/4/6
N2 - Increasing evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission. Recent estimates suggest that the dispersion parameter k for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is on the order of 0.1, which corresponds to about 10% of cases being the source of 80% of infections. To investigate how overdispersion might affect the outcome of various mitigation strategies, we developed an agent-based model with a social network that allows transmission through contact in three sectors: "close" (a small, unchanging group of mutual contacts as might be found in a household), "regular" (a larger, unchanging group as might be found in a workplace or school), and "random" (drawn from the entire model population and not repeated regularly). We assigned individual infectivity from a gamma distribution with dispersion parameter k. We found that when k was low (i.e., greater heterogeneity, more superspreading events), reducing random sector contacts had a far greater impact on the epidemic trajectory than did reducing regular contacts; when k was high (i.e., less heterogeneity, no superspreading events), that difference disappeared. These results suggest that overdispersion of COVID-19 transmission gives the virus an Achilles' heel: Reducing contacts between people who do not regularly meet would substantially reduce the pandemic, while reducing repeated contacts in defined social groups would be less effective.
AB - Increasing evidence indicates that superspreading plays a dominant role in COVID-19 transmission. Recent estimates suggest that the dispersion parameter k for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is on the order of 0.1, which corresponds to about 10% of cases being the source of 80% of infections. To investigate how overdispersion might affect the outcome of various mitigation strategies, we developed an agent-based model with a social network that allows transmission through contact in three sectors: "close" (a small, unchanging group of mutual contacts as might be found in a household), "regular" (a larger, unchanging group as might be found in a workplace or school), and "random" (drawn from the entire model population and not repeated regularly). We assigned individual infectivity from a gamma distribution with dispersion parameter k. We found that when k was low (i.e., greater heterogeneity, more superspreading events), reducing random sector contacts had a far greater impact on the epidemic trajectory than did reducing regular contacts; when k was high (i.e., less heterogeneity, no superspreading events), that difference disappeared. These results suggest that overdispersion of COVID-19 transmission gives the virus an Achilles' heel: Reducing contacts between people who do not regularly meet would substantially reduce the pandemic, while reducing repeated contacts in defined social groups would be less effective.
KW - pandemic
KW - overdispersion
KW - mitigation strategies
KW - superspreading
KW - social networks
U2 - 10.1073/pnas.2016623118
DO - 10.1073/pnas.2016623118
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 33741734
VL - 118
JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
SN - 0027-8424
IS - 14
M1 - 2016623118
ER -
ID: 261373747