Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts
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Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts. / Arritt, Raymond W.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Takle, Eugene S.; Pan, Zaitao; Gutowski, William J.; Otieno, Francis O.; Da Silva, Renato; Caya, Daniel; Christensen, Jens H.; Lüthi, Daniel; Gaertner, Miguel A.; Gallardo, Clemente; Hong, Song You; Jones, Colin; Juang, H. M.H.; Katzfey, J. J.; Lapenta, William M.; Laprise, René; Larson, Jay W.; Liston, Glen E.; McGregor, John L.; Pielke, Roger A.; Roads, John O.; Taylor, John A.
I: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 01.06.2004, s. 2347-2350.Publikation: Bidrag til tidsskrift › Tidsskriftartikel › Forskning › fagfællebedømt
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TY - JOUR
T1 - Ensemble methods for seasonal limited area forecasts
AU - Arritt, Raymond W.
AU - Anderson, Christopher J.
AU - Takle, Eugene S.
AU - Pan, Zaitao
AU - Gutowski, William J.
AU - Otieno, Francis O.
AU - Da Silva, Renato
AU - Caya, Daniel
AU - Christensen, Jens H.
AU - Lüthi, Daniel
AU - Gaertner, Miguel A.
AU - Gallardo, Clemente
AU - Hong, Song You
AU - Jones, Colin
AU - Juang, H. M.H.
AU - Katzfey, J. J.
AU - Lapenta, William M.
AU - Laprise, René
AU - Larson, Jay W.
AU - Liston, Glen E.
AU - McGregor, John L.
AU - Pielke, Roger A.
AU - Roads, John O.
AU - Taylor, John A.
PY - 2004/6/1
Y1 - 2004/6/1
N2 - The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.
AB - The ensemble prediction methods used for seasonal limited area forecasts were examined by comparing methods for generating ensemble simulations of seasonal precipitation. The summer 1993 model over the north-central US was used as a test case. The four methods examined included the lagged-average ensemble, perturbed physics ensemble, mixed physics ensemble, and multi-model ensemble. The results show that the similarity in spread between the mixed-physics and multi-model ensembles raises the possibility that a mixed-physics ensemble approach could be considered as a proxy for a multi-model ensemble. The mixed-physics ensemble performed well in terms of equitable threat score, especially for higher precipitation amounts.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=2442417581&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Journal article
AN - SCOPUS:2442417581
SP - 2347
EP - 2350
JO - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
JF - Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
SN - 0003-0007
ER -
ID: 186942489