Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

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Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records. / Nogues, David Bravo; Veloz, S.; Holt, Benjamin George; Singarayer, J.; Valdes, P.; Davis, B.; Brewer, S. C.; Williams, J. W.; Rahbek, Carsten.

In: Nature climate change, Vol. 6, No. 12, 2016, p. 1115-1119.

Research output: Contribution to journalLetterResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Nogues, DB, Veloz, S, Holt, BG, Singarayer, J, Valdes, P, Davis, B, Brewer, SC, Williams, JW & Rahbek, C 2016, 'Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records', Nature climate change, vol. 6, no. 12, pp. 1115-1119. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3146

APA

Nogues, D. B., Veloz, S., Holt, B. G., Singarayer, J., Valdes, P., Davis, B., ... Rahbek, C. (2016). Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records. Nature climate change, 6(12), 1115-1119. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3146

Vancouver

Nogues DB, Veloz S, Holt BG, Singarayer J, Valdes P, Davis B et al. Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records. Nature climate change. 2016;6(12):1115-1119. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3146

Author

Nogues, David Bravo ; Veloz, S. ; Holt, Benjamin George ; Singarayer, J. ; Valdes, P. ; Davis, B. ; Brewer, S. C. ; Williams, J. W. ; Rahbek, Carsten. / Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records. In: Nature climate change. 2016 ; Vol. 6, No. 12. pp. 1115-1119.

Bibtex

@article{ef04884f5c004efe9676722efc478fa1,
title = "Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records",
abstract = "Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4{\%} (North America) and 15.5{\%} (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as ' Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2{\%} and 56.8{\%} of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.",
author = "Nogues, {David Bravo} and S. Veloz and Holt, {Benjamin George} and J. Singarayer and P. Valdes and B. Davis and Brewer, {S. C.} and Williams, {J. W.} and Carsten Rahbek",
year = "2016",
doi = "10.1038/nclimate3146",
language = "English",
volume = "6",
pages = "1115--1119",
journal = "Nature Climate Change",
issn = "1758-678X",
publisher = "nature publishing group",
number = "12",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

AU - Nogues, David Bravo

AU - Veloz, S.

AU - Holt, Benjamin George

AU - Singarayer, J.

AU - Valdes, P.

AU - Davis, B.

AU - Brewer, S. C.

AU - Williams, J. W.

AU - Rahbek, Carsten

PY - 2016

Y1 - 2016

N2 - Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as ' Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

AB - Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as ' Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84997206863&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1038/nclimate3146

DO - 10.1038/nclimate3146

M3 - Letter

VL - 6

SP - 1115

EP - 1119

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

SN - 1758-678X

IS - 12

ER -

ID: 173502774