Women persistently infected with human papillomavirus (HPV) type 16 are at high risk for development of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 or cervical cancer (CIN3+). We aimed to identify biomarkers for progression to CIN3+ in women with persistent HPV16 infection. In this prospective study, 11,088 women aged 20-29 years were enrolled during 1991-1993, and re-invited for a second visit two years later. Cervical cytology samples obtained at both visits were tested for HPV DNA by Hybrid Capture 2 (HC2), and HC2-positive samples were genotyped by INNO-LiPA. The cohort was followed for up to 19 years via a national pathology register. To identify markers for progression to CIN3+, we performed microarray analysis on RNA extracted from cervical swabs of 30 women with persistent HPV16-infection and 11 HPV-negative women. Six genes were selected and validated by quantitative PCR. Three genes were subsequently validated within a different and large group of women from the same cohort. Secondly, Kaplan-Meier and Cox-regression analyses were used to investigate whether expression levels of those three genes predict progression to CIN3+. We found that high transcript levels of TMEM45A, SERPINB5 and p16INK4a at baseline were associated with increased risk of CIN3+ during follow-up. The hazard ratios of CIN3+ per 10-fold increase in baseline expression level were 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.3) for TMEM45A, 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.5) for p16INK4a, and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.2-2.7) for SERPINB5. In conclusion, high mRNA expression levels of TMEM45A, SERPINB5 and p16INK4a were associated with increased risk of CIN3+ in persistently HPV16-infected women.