In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food: A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality
Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Standard
In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food : A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality. / Saha, Sanjib; Nordström, Jonas; Scarborough, Peter; Thunström, Linda; Gerdtham, Ulf G.
In: Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 287, 114388, 2021.Research output: Contribution to journal › Journal article › Research › peer-review
Harvard
APA
Vancouver
Author
Bibtex
}
RIS
TY - JOUR
T1 - In search of an appropriate mix of taxes and subsidies on nutrients and food
T2 - A modelling study of the effectiveness on health-related consumption and mortality
AU - Saha, Sanjib
AU - Nordström, Jonas
AU - Scarborough, Peter
AU - Thunström, Linda
AU - Gerdtham, Ulf G.
N1 - Publisher Copyright: © 2021 The Authors
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: −832; −1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a −10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: −1572; −2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (−1,148, 95% CI: −728; −1586), followed by stroke −641 (95% CI: −408; −887) and diet-related cancer deaths (−288, 95% CI: −11; −435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.
AB - Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: −832; −1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a −10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: −1572; −2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (−1,148, 95% CI: −728; −1586), followed by stroke −641 (95% CI: −408; −887) and diet-related cancer deaths (−288, 95% CI: −11; −435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.
KW - Food intake
KW - Food taxes
KW - Nutrients
KW - Simulation model
KW - Subsidies
KW - Value added tax
U2 - 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114388
DO - 10.1016/j.socscimed.2021.114388
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 34520938
AN - SCOPUS:85114753200
VL - 287
JO - Social Science & Medicine
JF - Social Science & Medicine
SN - 0277-9536
M1 - 114388
ER -
ID: 280062122