OBJECTIVES: Investigation of the relative impact of three factors expected to influence the future mortality burden in Greenland: demographic change, epidemiological transition and behavioural patterns.

STUDY DESIGN: To identify general trends in public health status, evaluating the effect of public health campaigns and providing the basis for making predictions of future trends in the mortality burden data from the Greenlandic Death Causes Register to estimate Years of Life Lost (YLL) in the period 1976-1998 has been used.

METHODS: YLL were estimated according to the Burden of Disease Method. Age standardised death rates were calculated per 10,000 person years. Regression analysis (ordinary least squares) using time as the explanatory variable was applied to project the time series 1976-1998 into the prediction period 1999-2028.

RESULTS: The projections indicate that the demographic component in combination with behavioural patterns will have a dominant effect in the expected increase in the future burden of mortality. Relative to these two components, epidemiological transition will constitute a relatively insignificant impact on the future mortality burden in Greenland.

CONCLUSION: Concerted multi-sectoral approaches and broad holistic health strategies related to health promotion and prevention today will strategically improve the capability of the Greenlandic society to manage the future disease burden from ageing via its health care sector and the institutional sector for care of the elderly.