Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

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Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016. / Kjær, Lene Jung; Soleng, Arnulf; Edgar, Kristin Skarsfjord; Lindstedt, Heidi Elisabeth H; Paulsen, Katrine Mørk; Andreassen, Åshild Kristine; Korslund, Lars; Kjelland, Vivian; Slettan, Audun; Stuen, Snorre; Kjellander, Petter; Christensson, Madeleine; Teräväinen, Malin; Baum, Andreas; Klitgaard, Kirstine; Bødker, René.

In: Eurosurveillance, Vol. 24, No. 9, 28.02.2019.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Kjær, LJ, Soleng, A, Edgar, KS, Lindstedt, HEH, Paulsen, KM, Andreassen, ÅK, Korslund, L, Kjelland, V, Slettan, A, Stuen, S, Kjellander, P, Christensson, M, Teräväinen, M, Baum, A, Klitgaard, K & Bødker, R 2019, 'Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016', Eurosurveillance, vol. 24, no. 9. https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101

APA

Kjær, L. J., Soleng, A., Edgar, K. S., Lindstedt, H. E. H., Paulsen, K. M., Andreassen, Å. K., ... Bødker, R. (2019). Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016. Eurosurveillance, 24(9). https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101

Vancouver

Kjær LJ, Soleng A, Edgar KS, Lindstedt HEH, Paulsen KM, Andreassen ÅK et al. Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016. Eurosurveillance. 2019 Feb 28;24(9). https://doi.org/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101

Author

Kjær, Lene Jung ; Soleng, Arnulf ; Edgar, Kristin Skarsfjord ; Lindstedt, Heidi Elisabeth H ; Paulsen, Katrine Mørk ; Andreassen, Åshild Kristine ; Korslund, Lars ; Kjelland, Vivian ; Slettan, Audun ; Stuen, Snorre ; Kjellander, Petter ; Christensson, Madeleine ; Teräväinen, Malin ; Baum, Andreas ; Klitgaard, Kirstine ; Bødker, René. / Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016. In: Eurosurveillance. 2019 ; Vol. 24, No. 9.

Bibtex

@article{aafd4a197d9840b0bb5f333cf6c43cb1,
title = "Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016",
abstract = "BackgroundTick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.AimOur aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.MethodsWe measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.ResultsOur model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91{\%} and a specificity of 60{\%}. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5{\%} of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5{\%}, 67.1{\%} and 78.8{\%} of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.ConclusionThe model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.",
author = "Kj{\ae}r, {Lene Jung} and Arnulf Soleng and Edgar, {Kristin Skarsfjord} and Lindstedt, {Heidi Elisabeth H} and Paulsen, {Katrine M{\o}rk} and Andreassen, {{\AA}shild Kristine} and Lars Korslund and Vivian Kjelland and Audun Slettan and Snorre Stuen and Petter Kjellander and Madeleine Christensson and Malin Ter{\"a}v{\"a}inen and Andreas Baum and Kirstine Klitgaard and Ren{\'e} B{\o}dker",
year = "2019",
month = "2",
day = "28",
doi = "10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101",
language = "English",
volume = "24",
journal = "Eurosurveillance (Online Edition)",
issn = "1025-496X",
publisher = "Centre Europeen pour la Surveillance Epidemiologique du SIDA",
number = "9",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Predicting and mapping human risk of exposure to Ixodes ricinus nymphs using climatic and environmental data, Denmark, Norway and Sweden, 2016

AU - Kjær, Lene Jung

AU - Soleng, Arnulf

AU - Edgar, Kristin Skarsfjord

AU - Lindstedt, Heidi Elisabeth H

AU - Paulsen, Katrine Mørk

AU - Andreassen, Åshild Kristine

AU - Korslund, Lars

AU - Kjelland, Vivian

AU - Slettan, Audun

AU - Stuen, Snorre

AU - Kjellander, Petter

AU - Christensson, Madeleine

AU - Teräväinen, Malin

AU - Baum, Andreas

AU - Klitgaard, Kirstine

AU - Bødker, René

PY - 2019/2/28

Y1 - 2019/2/28

N2 - BackgroundTick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.AimOur aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.MethodsWe measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.ResultsOur model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.ConclusionThe model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.

AB - BackgroundTick-borne diseases have become increasingly common in recent decades and present a health problem in many parts of Europe. Control and prevention of these diseases require a better understanding of vector distribution.AimOur aim was to create a model able to predict the distribution of Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia and to assess how this relates to risk of human exposure.MethodsWe measured the presence of I. ricinus tick nymphs at 159 stratified random lowland forest and meadow sites in Denmark, Norway and Sweden by dragging 400 m transects from August to September 2016, representing a total distance of 63.6 km. Using climate and remote sensing environmental data and boosted regression tree modelling, we predicted the overall spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs in Scandinavia. To assess the potential public health impact, we combined the predicted tick distribution with human density maps to determine the proportion of people at risk.ResultsOur model predicted the spatial distribution of I. ricinus nymphs with a sensitivity of 91% and a specificity of 60%. Temperature was one of the main drivers in the model followed by vegetation cover. Nymphs were restricted to only 17.5% of the modelled area but, respectively, 73.5%, 67.1% and 78.8% of the human populations lived within 5 km of these areas in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.ConclusionThe model suggests that increasing temperatures in the future may expand tick distribution geographically in northern Europe, but this may only affect a small additional proportion of the human population.

U2 - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101

DO - 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2019.24.9.1800101

M3 - Journal article

VL - 24

JO - Eurosurveillance (Online Edition)

JF - Eurosurveillance (Online Edition)

SN - 1025-496X

IS - 9

ER -

ID: 214297489