Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

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Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. / Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Walther, Bruno A; Thuiller, Wilfried; Rahbek, Carsten; Jiguet, Frédéric.

In: Biology Letters, Vol. 5, No. 2, 2009, p. 248-51.

Research output: Contribution to journalJournal articleResearchpeer-review

Harvard

Barbet-Massin, M, Walther, BA, Thuiller, W, Rahbek, C & Jiguet, F 2009, 'Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines', Biology Letters, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 248-51. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

APA

Barbet-Massin, M., Walther, B. A., Thuiller, W., Rahbek, C., & Jiguet, F. (2009). Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. Biology Letters, 5(2), 248-51. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

Vancouver

Barbet-Massin M, Walther BA, Thuiller W, Rahbek C, Jiguet F. Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. Biology Letters. 2009;5(2):248-51. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

Author

Barbet-Massin, Morgane ; Walther, Bruno A ; Thuiller, Wilfried ; Rahbek, Carsten ; Jiguet, Frédéric. / Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines. In: Biology Letters. 2009 ; Vol. 5, No. 2. pp. 248-51.

Bibtex

@article{a0adced0327211df8ed1000ea68e967b,
title = "Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines",
abstract = "We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50{\%}); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980{\%}) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500+/-373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.",
author = "Morgane Barbet-Massin and Walther, {Bruno A} and Wilfried Thuiller and Carsten Rahbek and Fr{\'e}d{\'e}ric Jiguet",
note = "Keywords: Africa South of the Sahara; Animal Migration; Animals; Greenhouse Effect; Passeriformes; Population Dynamics; Seasons",
year = "2009",
doi = "10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715",
language = "English",
volume = "5",
pages = "248--51",
journal = "Biology Letters",
issn = "1744-9561",
publisher = "The/Royal Society",
number = "2",

}

RIS

TY - JOUR

T1 - Potential impacts of climate change on the winter distribution of Afro-Palaearctic migrant passerines

AU - Barbet-Massin, Morgane

AU - Walther, Bruno A

AU - Thuiller, Wilfried

AU - Rahbek, Carsten

AU - Jiguet, Frédéric

N1 - Keywords: Africa South of the Sahara; Animal Migration; Animals; Greenhouse Effect; Passeriformes; Population Dynamics; Seasons

PY - 2009

Y1 - 2009

N2 - We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500+/-373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

AB - We modelled the present and future sub-Saharan winter distributions of 64 trans-Saharan migrant passerines to predict the potential impacts of climate change. These predictions used the recent ensemble modelling developments and the latest IPCC climatic simulations to account for possible methodological uncertainties. Results suggest that 37 species would face a range reduction by 2100 (16 of these by more than 50%); however, the median range size variation is -13 per cent (from -97 to +980%) under a full dispersal hypothesis. Range centroids were predicted to shift by 500+/-373 km. Predicted changes in range size and location were spatially structured, with species that winter in southern and eastern Africa facing larger range contractions and shifts. Predicted changes in regional species richness for these long-distance migrants are increases just south of the Sahara and on the Arabian Peninsula and major decreases in southern and eastern Africa.

U2 - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

DO - 10.1098/rsbl.2008.0715

M3 - Journal article

VL - 5

SP - 248

EP - 251

JO - Biology Letters

JF - Biology Letters

SN - 1744-9561

IS - 2

ER -

ID: 18691063